Jia Xinguang: Car prices are still full of confidence in the market in 2011

Recently, there have been a number of auto companies that have disclosed plans for 2011 production schedules. The growth rate is mostly between 10% and 20%. Compared with the actual growth in 2009 and 2010, this rate is not large, but it is contrary to the pessimistic predictions of some experts. The ratio reflects that the auto companies’ judgment on the auto market in 2011 was relatively stable.

There are indeed some unpredictable factors in the auto market in 2011, such as the impact of macro-control on the auto market, restrictions on purchases in some places, and restrictions on travel policies.

One of the major changes in the auto market in 2011 was the withdrawal of small-displacement purchase tax incentives, autos to the countryside, and trade-in replacements. Many people fear that this change will have a stronger impact on the auto market. In fact, from the trend of the automotive market in 2010, the stimulation of the preferential policy for small-displacement purchase tax has been very weak. From May to July 2010, car sales have been declining, and some people even exclaimed “turning points”. After August, The introduction of an energy-saving automobile subsidy of 3,000 yuan has brought about a revival in the auto market. In 2009, the growth rate of passenger cars with 1.0 liters or less of displacement was 79.69%, and the growth rate of passenger cars with 1.0-1.6 liters was 69.14%; from January to October 2010, these two growth rates became 52.54% and 28.76%, the growth of large-displacement car sales exceeded the small displacement. Therefore, the withdrawal of preferential policies for small-displacement purchase tax has little effect on the auto market.

In 2009, the number of cross-passenger passenger vehicles increased by 83.39%. From January to October 2010, this growth rate dropped to 28.14%, which has already shown the marginal effect of policies. In 2011, the growth of the crossover passenger car market will continue to decline, but it will still be above 10%.

The year 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The core concept of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is to transform the mode of economic development and highlight the importance of expanding consumption. Auto consumption occupies an important position. The withdrawal of preferential policies does not mean that the government does not encourage it. Car consumption, but the actual market growth has far exceeded expectations. The original automobile industry revitalization adjustment plan aims to increase by 10% year-on-year, but the actual growth in 2009-2010 exceeds 30%, and no further stimulus is needed.

The second and third tier automobile market continues to show strong vitality. For example, Shandong, Jinan and Qingdao are the two largest primary markets in Shandong. In 2009, the number of license plates for cars in the two places reached 93,616 and 93,248, respectively, an increase of 58% year-on-year. The emergence of secondary markets represented by Weifang and Linyi has become a new growth point in the auto market in Shandong. In Weifang, the number of cars sold in 2009 was as high as 88886, an increase of 91%; the number of cards sold on Linfen was 65,483, an increase of nearly 80%; and the sales of more than 40,000 vehicles in the year were Yantai, Zibo, and Jining. Similar situations exist in all provinces. Recently, some companies began to explore the development of the 4-5 market, indicating that the automotive market is moving toward lower administrative divisions.

On the occasion of the new arrival, some companies have successively released new cars, such as the new generation of Sonata, the new Accord, the new generation of sunshine, the new Passat, etc., showing the expectations of various companies for the 2011 market.

The judgment of the business to the market is more rational. In early 2010, BYD proposed the goal of doubling production. Due to changes in the market, the target had to be lowered in the middle of the year. This year, BYD's sales target is about 20% growth, relatively low-key, but there will certainly be real growth.